Why are all 4 scenarios negative shifts for NATO? Do you really think unexpected negative outcomes for Russia and its allies are so unlikely to be not worth gaming out? The momentary insurrection of the Wagner group in 2023 suggests that a surprising turn of events is possible on both sides of this conflict. And trouble for Russia could be as tricky for Europe and the US to navigate as success!
Plead guilty to being dystopic. Was deliberately pushing to get folks out of the rut of linear thinking (Win/Lost/Negotiate, see Chatham House and Brussels alternative reports). Agree that a longer piece could include some positive Wild Cards as well, including severe Russian economic woes, and perhaps a revelation in China's thinking.
Why are all 4 scenarios negative shifts for NATO? Do you really think unexpected negative outcomes for Russia and its allies are so unlikely to be not worth gaming out? The momentary insurrection of the Wagner group in 2023 suggests that a surprising turn of events is possible on both sides of this conflict. And trouble for Russia could be as tricky for Europe and the US to navigate as success!
Plead guilty to being dystopic. Was deliberately pushing to get folks out of the rut of linear thinking (Win/Lost/Negotiate, see Chatham House and Brussels alternative reports). Agree that a longer piece could include some positive Wild Cards as well, including severe Russian economic woes, and perhaps a revelation in China's thinking.
Hizbolah and IRGC could benefit from experience taking on NATO doctrine and equipment.